Climate Change and the Implications for the Fate and Transport of Crop Pathogens

An increasingly variable climate can have a wide range of effects on agricultural production.  The single largest risk variable on an annual basis in agricultural production is weather variability.  Farmers need tools to help them manage all aspects of production with increasing inter-annual variability including pest protection.  In addition, the ability of agricultural ecosystems to adapt to increased heat or drought stress represents a major long-term challenge to agriculture.  Shifts in crop production will also result in geographic changes of host plants for pathogenic organisms.  As climate patterns change, so will the incidence of disease and other pests that are better suited to a change in temperature or moisture.  For example, Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) of wheat and barley is caused by a complex of pathogenic organisms that produce mycotoxins.  As more maize moves into an area, the pathogenic organism in the complex hosted by maize may become more dominant resulting in a pathogen that might be more mobile through the atmosphere leading to a much greater geographic potential for infection of wheat and barley.  As temperature regimes change, the geographic range of winter-time pathogen nurseries may change leading to much different spatial dispersal during the growing season.  Elevated greenhouse gases and other atmospheric pollutants could lead to changes in plant structures such as increased leaf area, increased leaf thickness, and increased organ sizes that will play a role in how the plant can combat pests and pathogens.  This presentation will focus on USDA research and education strategies for dealing with climate stressors and how to adapt agriculture to be more resilient to changes in climate.