Evaluation of Costs and Effectiveness of Pearl River Delta's air Pollution Reduction Actio

Sunday, February 14, 2016
Zhimin Mao, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA
The purpose of this research is to better understand and assess potential costs and effectiveness of proposed action plan in China’s Pearl River Delta that aims to control the negative environmental and health impacts of air pollution. Many strategies and action plans have been proposed to tackle this problem.  Using the GAINS-China model at regional level, this study discusses the scenarios reflecting on both full and delayed implementation of air quality policy. For the first time, this analysis provides cost estimation for regional air pollution reduction policy in China. The action plan in conjunction with the 12th five year plan could achieve the targeted concentration reduction of PM 2.5 assuming full and timely compliance.  Failed compliance highlights the importance of monitoring implementation progress since even a short delay in successful implementation results in significant growth in emissions and further increase in particulate matter concentrations.  The costs of full and timely implementation of the proposed legislations were expected to be between 0.5% and 0.8% of the 2014 regional GDP.