Modelling Extreme Shocks to the Food System: Implications for the Near Future

Large-scale extreme climate events in important agricultural regions can cause major short-term shocks to the global food system. We will discuss current knowledge on the impacts of climate change and extreme events on productivity and production. We develop plausible scenarios for 1-in-200-year food shocks based on modeling and historical analysis and explore the implications of changing climate on the severity, frequency, and multi-region coincidence of large-scale events in the near future.