Modelling Extreme Shocks to the Food System: Implications for the Near Future

Friday, February 12, 2016: 10:00 AM-11:30 AM
Marshall Ballroom North (Marriott Wardman Park)
Joshua W. Elliott, Computation Institute, Chicago, IL
Large-scale extreme climate events in important agricultural regions can cause major short-term shocks to the global food system. We will discuss current knowledge on the impacts of climate change and extreme events on productivity and production. We develop plausible scenarios for 1-in-200-year food shocks based on modeling and historical analysis and explore the implications of changing climate on the severity, frequency, and multi-region coincidence of large-scale events in the near future.