Impact of a Warming Arctic on National Security

The Arctic is an ocean, hence, interests in the Arctic are predominantly maritime and are reflected in the lead role taken by the U.S. Navy within the Defense enterprise. These interests are fueled by the massive changes, arguably greater than anywhere else on Earth, impacting the Arctic. These changes will increasingly impact not only weather and climate at mid-latitudes, but trade, economics, energy and security. The mid-latitude changes will impact, in turn, how we and other nations view the Arctic. Future alternative scenarios for the Arctic will be discussed and might include different trans-Arctic trade routes, levels of energy exploitation, whether or not NATO becomes involved, and whether an independent Greenland, with all its implications, might emerge.