Scenario-Based Preferences Addressing Extreme Events of Large-Scale Systems

Climate change, weather and other natural and man-made extremes can combine in scenarios to influence priority-setting for large scale systems. I will share case studies including Alaska coastline and Afghanistan infrastructure development which illustrate the use of scenario-based preferences to focus science and negotiation on critical issues. The methods used in these cases are appropriate to cope with deep uncertainties in a variety of large scale systems and decision making.