Lessons from IPCC on Key Research Challenges in Climate Science

This talk describes the scientific basis for decadal prediction, current estimates of prediction quality, how decadal prediction activities contributted to the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC and the lessons learned. The results described emphasize the strengths and limitations of the multi-model approach. Particular attention is given to difficulties related to model systematic error and how this error affects forecast skill. Results post-AR5 also described.