Uncertainty: Perception Is Reality

Although striving for being as certain as possible, uncertainty is inherent to science. In fact, uncertainty is what stimulates scientists to go their lab or office every morning. Policy-makers are different: they hate uncertainty and, hence, want science to deliver answers that are certain. It is in this environment that science advisers are operating. The presentation will make a case that uncertainty and, therefore, the perception of risk is interpreted in very different ways depending on whether uncertainty is perceived as something abstract – e.g. on a global or long-term scale – or at a very personal level. While the melting of the Greenland ice sheet may be something distant, the flooding of your house is not. Such perception issues come into play in particular when introducing new technologies. The attitude of Europeans vis-à-vis genetically modified organisms is a compelling case of how public perception can hinder the roll-out of a new technology despite a solid body of scientific evidence backing its introduction. Such behavioural issues need to be taken into account when communicating uncertainty in science to policy-makers. The presentation will share experiences of providing scientific evidence to European policy-makers, pointing to the pitfalls, but also the rewards.