Assessing Risk from Climate Change: Scenario Generation Versus Prediction

Policymakers seek guidance from climate models for CO₂ mitigation and adaptation policies. Current climate models are not adequate for producing probabilistic predictions, therefore making decisions based upon a ‘best estimate’ of future climate carries considerable risk. Whereas regional impact models can be driven by a wide range of future scenarios based not only on global climate model simulations, but also regional historical and paleoclimate data, climate dynamics and statistical models.