Operational Earthquake Prediction: Castles in the Air

Sunday, February 17, 2013
Room 208 (Hynes Convention Center)
Kelin Wang , Geological Survey of Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada
While studies of possible precursors help us understand earthquake physics, operational earthquake prediction is impractical. Except for the fortuitous 1975 Haicheng prediction, it has mainly caused chaos at random times and finger-pointing after damaging earthquakes. It dilutes the important goal of earthquake study: to strengthen the built environment against earthquakes. With the improvement of seismic hazard assessment and construction engineering, the need for prediction will diminish.