Framing Uncertainty: The Use and Policy Implications of Uncertainty Frames in the Project ADD Water Dialogues

Water resources management in the era of climate change compels decision-makers to confront environmental, technological, and socio-political uncertainties. These uncertainties may arise from a lack of knowledge, inherent system complexity and variability, and ambiguities about what constitutes valid information and certitude.  Differences in the way uncertainty is deployed in discourse between communities of practice can misdirect conversation (toward scientific validity) and derail decision-making processes. These uncertainty frames shape diagnoses of water resource problems and limit the range of prognosis for solutions with implications for policy outcomes. [DW2] Yet there is interest in the water management community in overcoming discursive and management limitations imposed by uncertainty frames through processes of social learning (e.g. Isendal 2010). We investigate links between uncertainty framing and policy outcomes [DW3] and the potential for social learning through the case study of Project ADD Water, a multi-year deliberation between stakeholders on the future of water supplies in Arizona. We a) identify uncertainty frames deployed by different stakeholder groups during water resource management deliberations; b) describe differences between stakeholder groups in the frames used ; c) link those frames to the context  in which they were deployed and d) link uncertainty frames to policy proposals. Our goals are to expose the way that uncertainty framing shapes water policy discourse and to identify ways to improve water policy deliberations in the future through social learning.