Half Full?: Buffering Central Arizona Farmers from Signals of Environmental Change

Climate change and population growth have far-reaching implications for stressed water resources in the arid American Southwest. This poster explores the impact of current water regulations on the adaptive behaviors of farmers in Arizona. In 1980, Arizona passed what is considered the most comprehensive and progressive water management policy in the country, the Groundwater Management Act (GMA). The GMA was intended to reduce overdraft of groundwater resources, particularly within the agricultural sector, which uses seventy percent of the state’s water supply. Currently, Arizona is in the midst of drought, yet Arizona farmers have increased the area planted in cotton and alfalfa, both water-intensive crops, in response to high commodity prices. We hypothesized that Arizona farmers do not perceive signals of environmental change due to a mismatch between the institutional environment and emergent threats to future water availability, potentially making agriculture a major vulnerability to Arizona’s water supply in times of water scarcity. Using a mixed methods approach, including institutional analysis, statistical analysis of agricultural census data, and semi-structured interviews, we assess what factors affect farmers’ decision-making about water use in Central Arizona. Interview participants included farmers, water managers, water lawyers, and scholars. The results of our study reveal that farmers are buffered from signals of environmental change in four ways: 1) Technologically: Irrigation buffers farmers from dependence on and awareness of precipitation. 2) Geographically: Arizona farmers are physically distant from their water sources, reducing awareness of environmental change. 3) Economically: water is currently abundant and affordable for farmers. 4) Politically: To protect its Colorado River allocation from usurpation by Nevada and California, Arizona has adopted a policy of consuming all of its annual allocation, making water conservation in central Arizona a secondary concern. Given the reality of buffers, if there is public interest in farmer’s participation in adaptation to water scarcity, we should more closely consider how signals of change are communicated in the agricultural sector.