7199 Global Fire and Climate Change

Sunday, February 19, 2012: 10:30 AM
Room 109 (VCC West Building)
Mike Flannigan , Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada

Wildland fire is a global feature resulting from interactions between climate/weather, fuels and people. Our climate and associated day-to-day weather may be changing rapidly due to human activities that may have dramatic and unexpected impacts on regional and global fire regimes. Existing studies suggest a general overall increase in area burned and fire occurrence although there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine due to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people.  

The implications of future changes of global fire activity will be explored using outputs from multiple scenarios from three GCMs to determine changes in fuel moisture that directly influences fire occurrence and fire spread. The results will allow the determination of potential hot spots where large outbreaks of wildland fire may be likely in the future. In terms of fire management, Global Early Warning Systems that accurate predict the spatial and temporal variability in fire activity can help us adapt to a warmer world. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour on fire activity as most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.