Protection

Colorful coral reefs, lush mangrove forests, miles of productive wetlands and a diversity of other habitats anchor shorelines and shield people and property from storms, sea level rise and erosion.  However, the protection provided by these habitats is threatened by coastal development and climate change.  Moreover, the conditions in which habitats effectively serve as shields are not well understood, leaving their value for protection uncertain and management guidance vague.  How much habitat is sufficient for protection now and in the future?  Which specific areas and communities will be protected by restoration and conservation?  Is the protective value of coastal ecosystems “worth” avoiding development? To answer these questions and more, we have designed a synthetic framework for quantifying and valuing coastal protection services that connects previously disparate advancements in ecology, engineering, economics, and human well-being.  Our models 1) produce maps of land lost to flooding and erosion, both now and with future storm intensity and sea level rise, 2) provide a consistent and transferable method for identifying when and where habitats will serve as shields, and 3) estimate the value of coastal habitats as the dollar value of protected properties and the number of protected people.  We will describe how these models are being used to assess trade-offs between conservation and coastal development in Belize, evaluate climate adaptation strategies in California, and identify vulnerable coastlines around the US.  By quantitatively linking dynamic models of ecosystem function to economic and social valuation, our approach advances the management of coastal habitats for protection and climate adaptation.