Expecting the Unexpected: An Adaptive Vision for Marine Spatial Planning

If coastal and marine spatial planning is to be more than lines on maps and incorporate the reality of the dynamic world, it must implicitly be adaptive.  Future conditions cannot be reliably foretold and, furthermore, depend on the effectiveness of the spatial plans.  Adaptive management of coastal and marine spaces, resources and activities must not only respond to changing knowledge, uses and conditions, but also anticipate change and make outcome-informed adjustments. Such management must rely on well-crafted models which are regularly verified and adjusted based on real-world observations.  The management regime must fully embrace such an informed, adaptive approach as the means to achieve desired results objectively and efficiently.  Examples of present or potential application of adaptive management will be explored, including for Chesapeake Bay, post-Macondo blowout recovery in the Gulf of Mexico, and climate change adaptation.