Human Use of Resources: Quantification and Prospects

Today’s technology employs virtually the entire periodic table. The stocks and flows of the major metals, essentially unknown a decade ago, are now reasonably well quantified. The same cannot be said for the “specialty elements”, most of which have important uses in modern technology for which suitable substitute materials do not exist. A key issue is therefore whether scarcity implies long-term shortages or unavailability. To address this issue, a detailed methodology for generating a reliable assessment of the criticality of metals has been completed. The methodology makes extensive use of peer-reviewed datasets and analytical approaches from the fields of geology, international trade, political science, and international policy, among others. In this presentation, the methodology is described and then used to evaluate the criticality of several metals, selected in collaboration with partners from industry and government (the “criticality consortium”). The results provide guidance for materials choice in product design and development, recycling potential, and the consideration of substitute materials.