Carrying Capacity: Should We Be Aiming To Survive or Flourish?

 Whilst some countries in Africa, Asia and Central America continue to have rapidly growing populations, others around the world face the opposite situation. 

Population is moving back up the agenda. In the run-up to the December 2009 Copenhagen conference on climate change, a number of academics and NGOs called for a fresh look at the factors affecting and affected by changing population. Yet debates remain polarised: some people still see population as a distraction from the more urgent imperative of reducing resource consumption in the wealthiest countries. Others argue it is an issue that will solve itself, as global population size is projected to peak and then fall from the middle of the 21^st century, whilst some argue that population is the key to achieving sustainable development. 

The Royal Society is undertaking an important study which will speak directly to these debates, by analysing how population variables will affect and be affected by economies, environments, societies and cultures over the next forty years and beyond. The aims of the study are to provide policy guidance to decision makers and inform interested members of the public based on a dispassionate assessment of the best available evidence.

 The scope of the study is global. It explicitly acknowledges regional variations in population dynamics. It looks at the implications of population decreases, and increases that are observed and predicted in different parts of the world. It considers how scientific and technological developments might alter the rate and impact of population changes and affect human well-being. And it examines what population levels are likely to affect quality of life regionally and globally – should we be aiming to survive or flourish?

 The study will be completed by early 2012, when the world’s population is expected to exceed 7 billion. The report will be aimed at national and international policy makers, donors and funders, the media, scientific bodies and NGOs. It will be a high profile contribution to the 2012 ‘Rio+20’ UN Earth Summit and also mark the 40^th anniversary of ‘The Limits to Growth’.

 The study acknowledges that a wide range of factors affect population dynamics, such as cultural values, economic development, environment, gender and income equality, government policies and human rights. These will be reflected in the experts selected for the study and the disciplines that the study draws upon, but its primary focus will be what new insights and policy guidance the latest scientific evidence can offer to these debates.