The Oceans in 2050: Marine Biodiversity Outlook After CBD 2010

What will be the state of marine biodiversity throughout the world’s oceans in 2050? How climate change will impact countries on reaching the marine biodiversity targets recently set by the 10^th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity by the year 2050 was investigated. The targets of reducing pollution, addressing unsustainable fishing, invasive species and species loss within a climate change framework were explored using the SRES A1B climate change scenario, with an ocean model that included primary production, and in the case of fisheries this model was coupled with an ecosystem model using 3 fishing effort levels for the relevant FAO Area. Results of this study suggest that climate change, in particular increased sea temperatures, will significantly affect reaching the new targets. Nutrient loading, a significant driver of change for marine biodiversity in inshore areas will increase in most coastal areas. In all but a few regions of the world’s oceans the state of marine biodiversity will continue to decline with marine species invasive and species loss increasing in all areas, fisheries catch potential declining and that reducing effort may not be enough to stem the decline.