Foreseeing Critical Transitions

Friday, February 15, 2013
Room 310 (Hynes Convention Center)
Marten Scheffer , Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Complex systems ranging from ecosystems to financial markets, the brain and the climate can have tipping points where a sudden shift to a contrasting regime may occur. Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult. However, work in different fields of science is now suggesting the existence of generic early warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching. I will review key findings and highlight opportunities as well as challenges in this rapidly emerging research area. I will also discuss barriers and bridges to move to the practical management of risks and opportunities associated to tipping points.